Sinn Féin’s success makes the breakup of the UK more likely
As a direct consequence of Brexit, a union between Northern Ireland and the Irish republic is now far more likely

Ireland’s remarkable general election clearly marks a turning point for the republic. By topping the poll last weekend, Sinn Féin has broken the old politics wide open. Mary Lou McDonald’s party will now be either part of Ireland’s new government or the main opposition. Either outcome marks an astonishing change of fortune. Only nine months ago, in last year’s European elections, Sinn Féin came a poor fifth in seats. Within living memory, the party was a virtual pariah in the south.
The twin questions of how this happened and what it means for the future are now subjects of intense debate. Two points stand out so far. First, that Sinn Féin overwhelmingly owed its success to domestic left-of-centre pitches on subjects such as housing, health and pensions, not to its demands for Irish unity. And second, in Fintan O’Toole’s words, the heart of the result is Ireland’s desire for something that looks a lot like traditional European political normality. The voters, he argues, have decreed that the two centre-right parties that have carved up Irish politics since the civil war have had their day – and that Ireland will be better off ending Sinn Féin’s half-in/half-out status.

Yet Ireland’s election also marks a turning point for the United Kingdom. This may seem a perverse claim, having just said that the Irish election was mainly about affordable housing, hospital beds and a wish to leave the political past behind. But two different things can be true at the same time. Sinn Féin came top of the poll because of its economic and social policies, but it indisputably also stands for the creation of a united Ireland. Its success will inevitably make the pressure for an Irish unification poll – to unite the republic and Northern Ireland – significantly greater than it already was.
The unification issue became dormant after the Belfast/Good Friday agreement ended the Troubles in 1998. The agreement acknowledged Northern Ireland as part of the UK; but it provides for future unification if majorities in both parts of Ireland agree. The 2016 Brexit vote reawakened the possibility. It threatened to create a new land border between the UK and the EU in Ireland. Boris Johnson’s withdrawal agreement with the EU then removed that. Instead, it placed much of Northern Ireland’s economy under EU rules, with a border now planned in the Irish Sea.

The UK left the EU two weeks ago, but in Northern Ireland the withdrawal agreement remains unfinished business. The deal gives Northern Ireland no say in the EU rules that govern its economy. Last month, the restored Stormont assembly refused consent to it. Northern Ireland’s politicians want a say in the UK’s future relationship talks with the EU, yet they have less leverage to achieve that aim than in the last parliament. And if Northern Ireland gets a say in the talks, how can Scotland or Wales be denied one? It’s not going to happen.

At the same time, it has become increasingly clear that the Johnson government expects to strike a minimalist trade deal with the EU. That would not work for Northern Ireland or the republic, large parts of whose economies operate on an all-Ireland basis. It is therefore Brexit, not Sinn Féin, that has made full political union between Northern Ireland and the Irish republic (and thus the EU) a much more viable option than it was in the past.

If Brexit evolves on Johnson’s terms, Northern Ireland will become a constitutional adjunct of the UK, with its economic terms set in Brussels and shaped by Dublin. That may not be enough to flip Northern Ireland’s divided public straight into the arms of the republic. But it is likely to wear away at the issue over time. The most recent poll, by Lord Ashcroft last September, showed narrow overall support in the north for unification. That lead may have widened since because of events in both the UK and Ireland. ...

... These are now extremely serious possibilities for the United Kingdom. They will be exceptionally difficult to resist, even under a London government that, unlike Johnson’s, had the skills, judgment and goodwill to attempt the task. Clear warnings were made, both in 2016 and since. They should have been heeded. Instead they were ignored. In the end, it may be democratically impossible to prevent the breakup of the UK. But let no one forget where the responsibility for that will lie. It will be a direct and foreseen consequence of Brexit. The success of Sinn Féin merely makes it a bit more likely than before.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...k-boris-johnson

Zitat von Maga-neu im Beitrag #4500

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Zitat von Leto_II. im Beitrag #4495

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Zitat von Maga-neu im Beitrag #4494

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Zitat von Leto_II. im Beitrag #4487

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Zitat von Maga-neu im Beitrag #4486

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Zitat von Leto_II. im Beitrag #4485

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Zitat von Maga-neu im Beitrag #4483

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Auf fb gefunden:

12 days since Brexit.

There's grounded planes, chaos in the streets, unpaid workers, crippling strikes, a faltering economy, a buffoon in charge, petrol bombs, riot police, snipers on rooftops.

But enough about France.

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Der Brexit findet praktisch am 31.12.2020 statt, frühestens. Zum Frohlocken ist es etwas früh. :) Für einen Historiker hast Du es doch recht eilig! :) Auf FB lassen sich auch ganz bestimmt UFOs finden.

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Habe ich nicht. Ich dachte, direkt nach dem Ausscheiden am 31.1. käme Doomsday. Oder Armaggeddon. Oder dies irae.

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Der Brexit fand noch gar nicht statt, dafür fehlte den Briten die Traute, immer wieder. Ob sie diese noch finden, wird sich wahrscheinlich frühestens Mitte November zeigen. BoJo kann durchaus auch noch als Bettvorleger enden, bis dahin wird natürlich er den Löwen mimen. Das ist auch keine Häme, dass ist einfach nur Stand der Dinge, ganz objektiv.

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Die schrillen Stimmen sind doch immer dieselben, die schon den Weltuntergang oder den der britischen Wirtschaft verkündeten, sollte sich UK nicht dem Euro anschließen. Vergleicht man UK mit den nächsten drei großen Volkswirtschaften der Euro-Länder, D, F, I, dann sind die Perspektiven der britischen Wirtschaft die besten.

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Falls (nicht wenn) sie den uneingeschränkten Marktzugang haben. Der würden den politischen Brexit aber ad absurdum führen.

Du neigst übrigens selbst deutlich mehr zur Hysterie als früher.

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Tue ich nicht. Meine vorherrschenden Stimmungen sind Ekel, Verdruss und Sorge. Ja, ich sehe mit Sorge, wie totalitär das Denken in diesem Land wird, wie die Institutionen ausgehöhlt werden und welch verrückte Politik betrieben wird. Aber diese Panikmache vor dem Brexit, vor der Klimakatastrophe, vor dem drohenden Faschismus sind Instrumente eines Regimes, ja Regimes, das den wachsenden Widerstand gegen seine Politik im Keim ersticken will.

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Boris Johnson’s hard line on trade could sink the UK’s fishing fleet
The sort of minimal deal he is after would be a disaster for an industry that relies on frictionless trade

Brexiteers and big fishing interests say that Britain “betrayed” its fishing fleets when we joined the EEC in 1973. For the Scottish Fishermen’s Federation, for instance, Brexit offers a “sea of opportunity” for struggling coastal communities. The first claim is largely a myth. The second is an exaggeration and, for a thriving section of Britain’s fishing industry, a lie.

If Boris Johnson pursues his hard line in trade talks with the EU27, he will betray many industries, from car-making to pharmaceuticals to farming. He will also betray – and genuinely betray this time – a large part of the British fishing fleet.

Much of UK fishing – broadly the small-scale, ecologically sound part – is dependent on frictionless, overnight trade in fish, especially live shellfish and crustaceans, with the EU. About two-thirds of the shellfish, lobsters, crabs and langoustines caught by British fishers are sold to the continent.
That trade only exists because of the paper-free EU single market. It is the larger-scale, rich, noisy part of British fishing that drives the strident demands for a much bigger share of catches in UK waters. ...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...-fleet-industry

Boris Johnson has cancelled his planned trip to the White House after Trump slammed the phone down on him in a moment of 'apoplectic' fury
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has cancelled his planned trip to the United States next month after a furious phone call from Donald Trump in which the president slammed down the phone on the prime minister.

Johnson had been due to visit Washington last month but repeatedly delayed the trip after a series of rows with the president over Iran, Huawei and a rejected bid by the prime minister to extradite the wife of a US diplomat.
The disagreements culminated in a furious phone call from the president last month after which he hung up on Johnson, according to officials with knowledge of the conversation.

Johnson has now cancelled his trip altogether according to the Sun Newspaper with Johnson now not planning to visit the country until the G7 summit in June.
https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-jo...tic-2020-2?op=1

Gove confirms border checks to be imposed from January 1 - despite PM's denial
Goods coming to Britain from the EU will face import controls from January 1 next year, senior Cabinet minister Michael Gove has warned, despite Boris Johnson insisting there will be no border checks after Brexit.

During the election campaign the prime minister had promised "there won't be checks" for goods crossing the Irish sea, and claimed a leaked Treasury document about checks on the Northern Ireland border was "wrong".
He told Sky News: "[This deal] allows the whole of the UK to come out of the EU including Northern Ireland and the only checks that there would be, would be if something was coming from GB via Northern Ireland and was going on to the Republic, then there might be checks at the border into Northern Ireland."
Pressed on the document talking about "checks both ways", he said "that's wrong because there won't be checks".

But now in a speech Michael Gove, the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, has confirmed that import controls on EU goods at the border will be imposed after the transition period ends on December 31 and said border checks would apply to "almost everybody".
"The UK will be outside the single market and outside the customs union, so we will have to be ready for the customs procedures and regulatory checks that will inevitably follow," he said, according to extracts released by the Cabinet Office.
"As a result of that we will be in a stronger position, not just to make sure that our economy succeeds outside the European Union but that we are in a position to take advantage of new trading relationships with the rest of the world."

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) warned the government would have to move fast to get infrastructure in place for the start of 2021.
It said that without adequate preparations the availability of goods on shelves would be disrupted, with fresh fruit and vegetables especially vulnerable.

Andrew Opie, BRC director of food and sustainability, said ministers needed to set out detailed plans on how the controls would be implemented if the flow of goods to consumers was to be maintained.
"Government will need to move fast if it intends to provide the necessary infrastructure to carry out full border controls on imported goods from January 2021," he said.
"Without the necessary infrastructure up and running from day one, consumers in the UK will see significant disruption, particularly in the availability of fresh fruit and vegetables.
"Staff will need to be hired and trained to carry out these checks on the thousands of lorries that enter the UK every day.
"IT systems must be adapted and tested. Holding facilities for lorries, particularly at Dover and Folkestone, will need to be constructed.
"It is not enough to announce checks will take place, we must see plans now as to how this will be possible in practice, or it will be consumers who suffer on January 1."
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-sto...yJFfS8LXvmJULRw

https://scontent-ort2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t...1ff&oe=5EBC8AC2

https://scontent-ort2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t...985&oe=5EC40FBC

In 2016:

Sajid Javid: The only thing leaving the EU guarantees is a lost decade for British business
https://www.sajidjavid.com/news/sajid-ja...WyMNlwZnJga1Ezo

UK Brexit negotiator: We’re not bluffing on not accepting EU rules
David Frost says breaking away from Brussels regulations ‘is the point of the whole project.’

The U.K.'s rejection of demands that it stay aligned with EU rules post Brexit is not a "negotiating position which might move under pressure," but central to the government's vision for the country beyond 2020, according to Britain’s chief negotiator David Frost.

In a rare speech in Brussels before the second phase of Brexit talks get underway next month, Frost will give a robust response to the EU's red line on maintaining a so-called level playing field — the demand that London stays aligned to EU rules on environmental and labor protection, for example.

Laying out the EU's position earlier this month, chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said that Brussels is willing to do a deal that includes zero-tariff and zero-quota access to the EU's single market, but that it would come with conditions. "We need to make sure competition is and remains open and fair," Barnier said.
In remarks briefed to journalists ahead of his lecture at the Université Libre de Bruxelles on Monday evening, Frost says staying aligned with EU rules would defeat the point of Brexit.
“We bring to the negotiations not some clever tactical positioning but the fundamentals of what it means to be an independent country. It is central to our vision that we must have the ability to set laws that suit us — to claim the right that every other non-EU country in the world has," he says. ...

Frost will also reject the notion that the U.K. will extend the negotiating period beyond the end of the year, despite numerous warnings from trade experts and officials on the EU side that will only leave time for a minimalist trade deal — or no deal. "At that point we recover our political and economic independence in full – why would we want to postpone it?" Frost will ask.
https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-brexi...pting-eu-rules/

Nochmal in kurz: Frost says staying aligned with EU rules would defeat the point of Brexit.

Dem gegenueber steht natuerlich dann auch die Frage, warum die EU dem UK bevorzugten und freien Einlass in den eigenen Markt gewaehren sollten, wenn die sich andererseits aber partout nicht an die Regeln, die fuer diesen Markt gelten, halten wollen.

Supervorausetzungen fuer die Verhandlungen naechsten Monat. Mal sehen wer letztlich einknickt.
Nicht vergessen, die Alternative ist ein "No Deal" Brexit und crashing out.

Was man uebrigens auch schon letztes Jahr haette haben koennen. Aber da war natuerlich auch der grosse Staatsman BoJo noch nicht der Regierungschef.

Cayman Islands, Panama land on EU tax haven blacklist
Blacklisting a British overseas territory should be a warning to the UK.

... Blacklisting the Cayman Islands, a British overseas territory, should be a warning to the U.K. in the context of post-Brexit talks between London and Brussels, German conservative lawmaker Markus Ferber said in a statement.
“This sends a clear signal that the idea of turning the UK into a tax haven will not be acceptable to the EU,” said Ferber, a member of the European People’s Party. ...

https://www.politico.eu/article/cayman-i...aven-blacklist/

‘Global Britain’ is missing in action
Whether it’s due to strategic distancing or domestic distractions, UK is notably absent from global conversation.

Two weeks into post-Brexit reality and "Global Britain" risks cutting a sad figure on the international stage.
The domestic obsessions of Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his top adviser Dominic Cummings, such as pharaonic infrastructure projects and settling scores with a Cabinet reshuffle, mean Britain has taken its eye off the ball when it comes to diplomacy.
When dozens of presidents, prime ministers, foreign and defense ministers and military chiefs gathered in Bavaria this weekend for the annual Munich Security Conference, the U.K. was notable for only one thing — its absence. ...

... David Miliband, who was foreign secretary in a Labour government and now heads the International Rescue Committee, disagreed, describing the absence of high-ranking U.K. ministers as "genuinely mystifying. It is so clearly in their interests to show that post-Brexit Britain is not alone. This has sent a very clear message that they are not focused on international cooperation."
As for the excuse, he said: “Once the Cabinet has been reshuffled you can come here. Nancy Pelosi came all the way across the Atlantic – it’s not that far for the Brits."

Also unimpressed was General Richard Barrons, former head of the U.K.'s Joint Forces Command, who told POLITICO in Munich: “It is striking that there isn’t a U.K. minister here. If this is a sign of strategic distancing, I think that’s deeply regrettable because British security is totally bound up with European security and we need to be partners.” ...

... Another senior Conservative MP dismissed Downing Street's apparent belief that you can't handle domestic and foreign policy contemporaneously, "especially in the post-Brexit world."
“If you can’t walk and chew gum, you shouldn’t be in government,” he said.

https://www.politico.eu/article/global-b...ity-conference/

Michel Barnier rejects UK call for Canada-style trade deal
EU Brexit negotiator makes thinly-veiled warning to Boris Johnson not to break his word

Michel Barnier has rejected British demands for a Canada-style trade deal that would free the UK from EU rules as he made a thinly-veiled warning to Boris Johnson not to break his word.

Speaking in response to a landmark speech by David Frost, Britain’s Brexit negotiator, Barnier said the prime minister had agreed only six months ago to stick to the EU’s state aid rules and current social and environmental regulations after the transition period.
Asked if Frost was right in his speech on Monday night to say that agreeing to such alignment in a trade deal would be undemocratic, Barnier told reporters: “Truly not. It is a sovereign decision of the EU, it is a sovereign decision of the UK to cooperate … That is what Boris Johnson wrote in the political declaration.” ...

Speaking separately, the EU’s trade commissioner, Phil Hogan, warned that the UK would bear “full responsibility” for its choices.
“We’re looking for a level playing field and they don’t seem to want it,” Hogan said. “It’s a big worry for many of the manufacturing sectors in the UK. If they want to diverge from the existing rules and regulations, we are going to have problems. And the more they diverge from the existing EU law and regulations, the more problems we’ll have.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/202...fferent-planets

U.K. Consumers Face Higher Prices for EU Goods, Deal or Not
U.K. consumers will face higher prices on goods coming from the European Union after Brexit, whether Boris Johnson signs a free trade agreement with the bloc or not, according to a major business group.

Products imported from the EU after Jan. 1 2021 will require customs declarations, which cost between 16 pounds ($21) and 56 pounds per product line. They will also need documents like rules of origin paperwork, new red tape that is automatically triggered by Britain leaving the bloc’s single market and customs union.
“These things will have to happen regardless of how good the deal is,” said William Bain, policy adviser at the British Retail Consortium, which represents 5,000 businesses making 180 billion pounds of retail sales. “Any increase in cost in a low margin industry is ultimately going to be faced by the consumer.”

Looming higher costs for companies dealing with the EU, which is Britain’s largest trading partner and a source of half its imports, is a result of Prime Minister Johnson’s approach to trade talks with the bloc. Johnson is seeking a more distant economic relationship with the EU -- akin to the bloc’s deal with Canada -- so that the U.K. does not have to align with EU rules and can independently sign trade agreements with other countries.
Nearly four-fifths of food imported by British retailers comes from the bloc

Costs and delays for businesses will rise further if the U.K. and EU fail to be pragmatic on other customs processes, the BRC said. The most burdensome will be export health certificates (EHC), a form required to move products of animal origin into the EU, which cost about 100 pounds each and must be issued by a vet or other qualified professional. Such products include meats, fish, cheeses and yogurts.

Switzerland has been able to remove the need for EHCs with the EU through a deal based on regulatory alignment, but Johnson has said the U.K. wants regulatory autonomy. Last week, cabinet office minister Michael Gove told businesses to prepare for animal health checks after Brexit.

Boris Johnson Runs Up Against His Red Wall in Escape from EU
“That’s going to be a significant bit of extra red tape,” Bain said, noting a recent example of a goods truck heading to Northern Ireland which was carrying 1,392 different product lines, 800 of which would’ve required EHCs after Brexit. “It’s a significant amount of money per truck,” he said.

Another major concern for retailers is tariffs. Commerce between the U.K. and the EU will default to World Trade Organization terms if no accord is struck in 2020, and Britain is currently consulting on the levies it would apply. The EU has said a zero-tariff, zero-quota trade deal with Britain is conditional on a satisfactory agreement on fishing rights and the U.K. respecting the bloc’s rules in areas like environmental protection, labor standards and state aid. Johnson has so far rejected the idea of being bound by the EU’s so-called ‘level playing field’ requirements.
“Prices of goods are a commercial decision for businesses and depend on a variety of factors, but it’s in their interests too to make them competitive and affordable,” a government spokesperson said. “Leaving the EU’s single market and customs union gives us the opportunity to strike trade deals around the world, widen choices available for consumers, and set our own independent tariff strategy that is best for U.K. businesses and consumers.'’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...igher-eu-prices

Übung hat er ja gerade:

https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/leute/bo...ca-f1ebf62c2971

https://scontent-ort2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t...07d&oe=5EF6C8F4

https://scontent-ort2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t...7ea&oe=5EDA3656

https://scontent-ort2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t...661&oe=5ED0501A

Zitat von Hans Bergman im Beitrag #4515

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Großbritannien wird die Zugstrecke High Speed 2 bauen, Europas größtes Infrastrukturprojekt.
https://www.spiegel.de/auto/grossbritann...66-9704c94ad76f

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Zitat von Willie im Beitrag #4517

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Coronavirus: Jaguar Land Rover flying in Chinese car parts in suitcases as carmaker scrambles to keep UK factories running
UK factories could run out of parts in just two weeks, CEO warns

Britain’s largest car manufacturer has flown Chinese parts to the UK in suitcases in a scramble to keep production running, as firms across the world warn of crippling supply chain issues as a result of the coronavirus outbreak.
Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), which makes nearly 400,000 vehicles a year at its three factories in the UK, warned it could run out of parts in just two weeks.

“We are safe for this week and we are safe for next week and in the third week we have ... parts missing,” CEO Sir Ralf Speth told reporters at the opening of the National Automotive Innovation Centre in Coventry.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/busin...a-a9343336.html

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Zitat von Leto_II. im Beitrag #4519

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Zitat von Willie im Beitrag #4517

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Coronavirus: Jaguar Land Rover flying in Chinese car parts in suitcases as carmaker scrambles to keep UK factories running
UK factories could run out of parts in just two weeks, CEO warns

Britain’s largest car manufacturer has flown Chinese parts to the UK in suitcases in a scramble to keep production running, as firms across the world warn of crippling supply chain issues as a result of the coronavirus outbreak.
Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), which makes nearly 400,000 vehicles a year at its three factories in the UK, warned it could run out of parts in just two weeks.

“We are safe for this week and we are safe for next week and in the third week we have ... parts missing,” CEO Sir Ralf Speth told reporters at the opening of the National Automotive Innovation Centre in Coventry.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/busin...a-a9343336.html

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https://www.n-tv.de/wirtschaft/In-China-...le21584162.html

Das ist kein Brexit-Problem, die Lieferkette sind hin. Wir werden bald sehen, wo "China" Überfall enthalten ist. In Südkorea machen die Fabriken auch dicht, weil Kabelbäume fehlen.

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https://www.publicomag.com/2020/02/die-b...rwnyUbqr0j7bK2c

Kann man auch bei Schande des Online-Journalismus einsortieren. Habe es wegen der famosen UK-Expertin hier eingeordnet, die prophezeite, dass der Brexit nie kommen und Boris Johnson in der Versenkung verschwinden wird.

Zitat von Hans Bergman im Beitrag #4521

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Zitat von Willie im Beitrag #4519

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...Natuerlich. Ich wusste nur im Moment nicht in welchen Strang ich es tun sollte.
Vielleicht waere es im Strang Coronavirus besser plaziert. Dann koennte ja vielleicht Bergmann es dahin verschieben. Dh. wenn er so freundlich waere, das zu tun.

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Es ist vollbracht... :-)

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Prima. Das wird Willie aber nicht davon abhalten, Dich gleich wieder Maß zu nehmen...)))

Hans, Du mußt uns ja nach den neuen Plänen dieser Regierung regelmäßig melden. Hast Du schon eine Rangliste erstellt? Beleidigung, Unterstellung, Miesmachung .....